Popular media is full of post-Apocalyptic shows. Walking Dead, The Last of Us, Earth Abides, etc. The same with movies showing Apocalyptic events where a disaster happens and everything collapses and billions are killed right away. The story is always about the small band of survivors.

In both cases there are two constants: It happens fast and there are few survivors.

But the reality is that the far more likely real-world scenario is much, much worse and horrible. And actually occurring now as I write this. What I fear is a slow societal collapse.

Where things slowly crumble. Where there is not one defining event, but a series that we notice but don’t acknowledge. We’re already past a number of negative milestones and people are still claiming ignorance.

I cover this topic near the end of The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide, but wanted to highlight some aspects of it so you can see what’s happening and going to happen.

Here are immediate signs of collapse (days, weeks away):

The emergency or disaster is something that is approaching you and can’t be stopped.

The rule of law has completely broken down and now your home is a target and you cannot adequately defend it

Television stations go blank.

Local FM radio stations go off the air.

The water stops.

The power grid goes down over an extensive area without any sign of repair forthcoming.

Long haul freight trucks are no longer moving. Most urban areas have enough food to last no more than a week.

Increased military presence, especially if its Federal forces, not National Guard. Federal military Army, Air Force and Marines can only be employed stateside in extreme emergencies. In your Area Study learn the difference and what National Guard units are nearby; what their unit patch is (on the left shoulder) and what unit designations would be marked on the bumpers of their military vehicles.

In cities, if garbage is piling up and not being picked up, eventually this will cause disease. It also indicates a slow breakdown of social order. Of the three, police/fire/sanitation the latter is the one that can cause the biggest problems long term.

There is slim to no possibility of receiving aid. This latter is something people don’t consider in mild or moderate emergencies. Localized emergencies always have the advantage of outside assistance coming in. If an emergency is on a national or international scale, this likelihood is drastically reduced.

A disturbing aspect of this is that while the government might call for evacuations, there really is no protocol for announcing that things have completely gone to s$%t. In fact, it is unlikely that such a thing will ever be announced. The desire to avoid panic will often override reality. Thus, you must make this decision on your own.

Make sure you can listen in on the Emergency Broadcast Stations with your survival radio. A smart move is to monitor emergency transmissions in your area. In my free apps I list one that will allow you to do that. Often the emergency services are better informed than the general public. You can also get an idea of the scope of the emergency or disaster not only from what is being said, but the tone of the emergency personnel. A warning sign is if the emergency personnel begin abandoning their jobs.

What Can Cause the Collapse of Civilization?

World War III.

The use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons on a large scale.

A series of local conflicts that disrupt trade and commerce on an international level.

Water shortages. This is one of the most glaring threats to our world. Many places in the world already lack clean water. I predict that wars in the future will not be over oil, but over water.

Climate change. While people debate this, I prefer to deal with the scientific reality that we are damaging our environment and Mother Nature has a way of equalizing things. The easiest way to know its real is to check what the insurance companies are doing.

A large solar flare that bathes the planet in an EMP pulse that destroys electronics.

A pandemic. Another one will happen and sooner, rather than later. And it will be worse than Covid. And given the ignorance among anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers it will be much worse.

A depletion of resources.

A meteor strike of sufficient size.

A volcanic eruption that spreads enough ash to start the equivalent of a nuclear winter.

Economic disruption that spreads. This one is appearing more and more likely.

Remember that great civilizations have collapsed before. Often it wasn’t a single event, but an accumulation of events. The Mayans, Mesopotamia, Persia, Greece, Rome, and on and on. While I am not an alarmist, I think we have a reasonably good chance of seeing a major disruption of our way of life in the next thirty years. As they used to say in the old Army, when they had cigarettes in the C-Rations: Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.

Less than that, there are a number of various possibilities. What most people fail to realize is how fragile civilization is and how easily it can break down, with a domino effect that will be shocking.

In researching this, I found many of those addressing this issue are either naïve or gloss over the depth of what will happen. Many dwell on political issues. I’m just going to focus on the practical issues.

While New York and New Jersey struggled to recover from Hurricane Sandy, a friend emailed that they got their power back, and a crew from Alabama had been working in their neighborhood day and night doing this. While this shows the great spirit of America, it occurs to me that that crew would not be there if Alabama needed them. This is key: a large-scale catastrophe that covers most of a continent will preclude aid from inside that continent.

Pre-Collapse

There are stages to surviving an extreme emergency. While a dramatic event might bring it about, it is more likely you will see many signs indicating the collapse is coming. Most people will ignore these signs. The closest I can liken it to is Germany in the 1930s. Many people saw what was coming; the vast majority chose to ignore it. On a much lower level, as the housing market bubbled and boiled in 2006, my wife and I sold our house, against the advice of pretty much everyone. We crunched the numbers and also accepted that things had to change, and not in a good way.

You will see signs of bad things coming. It won’t happen overnight. Severe power outages that don’t get better are a sign.

The key to pre-collapse is, like everything in my book, to prepare. The base level of survival, Grab & Go bags, etc. will not be sufficient. Some preparations can be integrated into your current life as a way of living, such as growing a garden. But you have to start now.

I’m not going to cover the likelihood of various scenarios, because it’s just as likely a random, unexpected event can cause the collapse of civilization as easily as war, peak oil, global warming, etc etc.

The bottom line is it isn’t going to be pretty. You can expect food shortages, fuel shortages, riots, power outages, martial law, war and the complete breakdown of law and order.

And that’s only the first month.

I cannot overemphasize how quickly the veneer of civilization can be stripped away. Some of the ethnic fighting in various places around the world have shown how apparently civilized people can rapidly fall into barbarism. In 10th Special Forces, many of our soldiers were most dismayed by the fighting they saw in the Balkans because those places seemed so much like their own home (Sarajevo hosted the Olympics not long before the civil war). We tend to think this ‘can’t happen here’ but it can.

Another key to wrap your brain around is that there won’t be any help coming. Once civilization breaks down, there won’t be a reaching out from any remaining pockets. They will be desperate for their own survival. Supermarkets have a three-day supply of food. The world, the entire world, has about a month and a half supply. One of the signs will be panic buying. You don’t want to be caught up in the panic.

On the plus side, you will be amazed how quickly many human beings can adapt to a change in their standard of living. While we will miss our cell phones and lights and supermarkets, we can adapt and evolve.

An extreme emergency requires an extreme mindset. You have to let go of many habits.

So what do you need to do to prepare?

Prioritize your needs based on your area study. The first question is if you can even stay where you are? If you are in a metropolitan area, most likely not. If you live in the suburbs, consider that you will see massive urban flight through your communities. Where can you go? This is taking the concept of the hide site to a whole new level. Since you have now done all your preparations for mild and moderate emergencies it’s time to take it to the next level and prepare for an extreme emergency.

The priorities are the same except on a sustainable, long-term basis: water, food, shelter.

The key word is sustainable. You can stock up a year’s worth of food and have a water source, but that’s not sustainable. Also, a food stock, like any other, is subject to being taken from you.

The other problem is that unlike those media presentations where the survivors live off of scavenging, that won’t be viable when hundreds of millions are going to for the same items.

Here’s a sobering thought: few areas in the United States are locally self-sustaining. Without industrialized food processing, we simply can’t produce enough food to feed our current population level. Think what that means: many people will starve to death. Starving people are desperate people and they will do anything to get food. So your food stock will be like fresh brains to zombies.

Can you live off the land? Do you know how? Do you want to learn how to?

There are things you can stock up on that will be useful. While initially, cash and valuables such as gold coins might have value, when things get desperate enough, other items will become more precious. Weapons and ammunition are two of those. Medical supplies are another. So is food. So is expertise, especially medical.

I’m not going to rehash what’s already been covered in equipment. Look at what has been discussed and then consider it in terms of years of use.

Collapse

Run for the hills boys!

Not necessarily. Evaluate the situation. If you are not in immediate danger, this is a moment when taking your time is important. Gather as much information as possible, understanding that you will hear conflicting accounts. There will be an effort by those in power to suppress panic.

There were those on 9-11 who evacuated the second tower and then went back to their offices when given the all clear. I’ve listened to tapes of some of those people on their cell phones, decrying this decision as they were trapped after the second plane hit. Be very leery of those who declare an emergency over. In many emergency situations there are after-effects, whether it be follow-on earthquakes, more bombs set for first responders in a terrorist attack, or others.

How do you know civilization has collapsed? When the infrastructure (electricity, roads, rail, flight) fails and does not appear to be coming back any time soon. Many people will wait for help. Unfortunately, the help will be in the same situation. It’s a question of considering your hide site your new home, or, if untenable, moving until you find a locale where you can develop a self-sustaining community for your team.

Speed of Collapse

Understand that a collapse can be a gradual thing or it can happen very quickly. There are some keys that collapse is imminent. Steer away from the fear mongers who warn you that society is going to collapse and you should run out and invest in gold or whatever product they’re hawking. Their goal is to make money, which makes little sense if they truly believe society is collapsing. My theory is that it is a possibility, but not a probability.

More signs of the fall:

•    Power outages that cover entire regions and show little sign of being restored.

•    Multiple nuclear explosions.

•    A solar flare that fries the world’s electrical grid.

•    When an endemic (confined to a particular area) becomes a pandemic (spread over all areas). A pandemic also has a higher infection rate and usually a higher kill rate.

•    Remember, a huge problem you will face is that most people, unlike you, are not prepared for emergencies. Panic is inevitable regardless of the emergency, especially if it affects everyone in your area.

I am not a doom and gloomer. I am a realist. Humans are much more adaptable than most realize. But it pays to be aware. And to be prepared. And you need to start preparing NOW.