Can You Do Five Days Without Power?

We recently had a tornado touch down here in Knoxville. We were not in the path and only had a tree broken, but were without power for half a day. Not a big deal and I spent most of that time chainsawing the tree. A neighbor came by with his chainsaw and offered to help and we chatted for a while. Then he left. I talked with another neighbor across the street and mentioned I’d moved my Yeti 400 battery inside to handle some things and if the power was still out in the morning, I’d be laying out the solar panels. He laughed.

But then I got to thinking. How would we deal with things if we went five days or a week without power? People who have experienced extended power outages have learned some hard lessons. The smart thing is to consider these lessons and prepare BEFORE it happens to you.

This is particularly important for those in certain areas and at certain times. One example I keep going back to is the city of Phoenix, in the summer, with temperatures over 100 consistently, and not even getting cool at night. I believe if there was an extended power outage there in those circumstances, tens of thousands would die. What about where you live? This is why doing an AREA STUDY is so critical. I have a presentation on how to deal with a power outage but here are lessons learned:

1. **Emergency Preparedness:** Power outages underscore the importance of being prepared for emergencies. People learn to have essential supplies on hand, including non-perishable food, water, flashlights, batteries, and other necessities. For planning purposes, use one gallon a day per person. For five days, five gallons. A case of water equals three days worth per person. So two cases of water would last six days. Here is a presentation on water for emergencies. But consider other things that will add to consumption, like pets. When I boondock with Scout she usually drinks from streams, unless we’re in the desert. Then I have to factor her into my water supply.

2. **Communication:** Without power, traditional communication methods like phones and internet may be unavailable. People learn the value of having alternative means of communication, such as battery-powered radios or hand-crank emergency radios. Water and a radio are two of the four key survival things I tell people to have. I also have a SpotX Satellite Messenger.

3. **Backup Power Solutions:** Individuals and businesses realize the need for backup power solutions, such as generators or solar panels, to maintain basic functions during power disruptions. I have an entire presentation on this. My Yeti 400 could power a cpap machine all night. I have enough solar panels (6 100 watt) to recharge it (if it’s sunny!). When we finally buy a house, I plan on putting in a solar battery pack. At the very least you should have several small power banks so you can charge your phone.

4. **Community Cooperation:** Power outages often lead to neighbors helping each other. People learn the importance of community cooperation and mutual support during times of crisis. Up to a point. I’ll be posting later this week about when this breaks down!

5. **Health and Safety:** Individuals recognize the significance of maintaining personal health and safety during power outages. They learn how to handle food safety, keep warm in cold weather, and manage medical needs. A first aid kit is the third of the four key elements to have. But consider special things like medication.

6. **Vulnerable Populations:** Power outages highlight the vulnerabilities of certain populations, such as the elderly, individuals with medical needs, and those with limited resources. This leads to a focus on ensuring these groups are adequately supported during emergencies.

7. **Information Accessibility:** People realize the importance of having access to accurate and timely information during power outages. This highlights the need for community notification systems and emergency communication strategies.

8. **Long-Term Preparedness:** Extended power outages can serve as a reminder that the impacts of certain disasters can last longer than expected. This encourages individuals and communities to consider long-term preparedness measures. There is a point where a wide spread disaster can make you realize the power is NOT coming on any time soon. Do you have plan? One thing I cover in The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide is how to make that key decision whether to stay or leave.

20 THINGS EVERY HIKER SHOULD HAVE IN THEIR DAY PACK

The day pack you use for hikes or outings should be made into a simple GnG bag. A GnG bag is the #1 thing a person should put together to be prepared. This list makes a basic one. I have a slideshow on my free slideshow page with more info on GnG bags.

Whether it’s just a short jaunt in the woods or a longer day-hike, these are things everyone should carry in their day pack. Over-confidence is the bane of many a day-trippers journey. The pack should be tailored to your locale. Try to get items that have multiple uses, rather than just one. Thread follows with items and links.

Pack choice is personal. I have learned when you go cheap, you get cheap. After researching and using others, I settled on an Osprey Stratos 24. The nice part is it pushes away from your back and has mesh to help avoid that sweat soaking. It comes with a rain cover.

BTW. Any profit from affiliate links goes to the Special Operations Warrior Foundation, which educates the children of Special Operators killed while on duty.

  1. The equivalent of 4 full 500ml water bottles (most people carry this in a bladder). More if in hot weather.
  2. Lifestraw or a bottle of water purification tablets. Recently I began carrying the Sawyer Products Squeeze Water Filter
  3. Rechargeable Plasma lighter/flashlight. Fulfills two functions. Plasma lighters work in all weather.
  4. Small solar power bank hung on the outside of your pack to charge. This one has charging cables built in—a power bank is worthless without cables. Speaking from experience, which is why I use this one.
  5. Several power bars. Other, more varied edibles, depending on the walk. This is personal, but have something compact to eat. Food is a actually a very low priority in emergency and survival situations. Water and shelter are much higher and immediate.
  6. Emergency sleeping bag/bivy sack. These can be lifesavers, especially for how small they pack and how light they are. Better than a survival blanket since you can pull it tight around you.
  7. Leatherman Wave multitool. I always have this on my belt along with a single AAA battery flashlight on the side of the holder. I use both daily.
  8. Besides the light on plasma lighter, I carry a headlamp. In case you misjudged your hike or there is a delay, a headlamp can help you get back to the trail head after dark. Leaves your hands free to break your fall when you trip.
  9. First aid kit. Depends on how much you want to carry, but at least a basic one. I recommend adding a quick-clot bandage to your day pack with a splint. I can verify the Quik-Clot works. I carry a Quik Clot bandage in my day pack, on my bike and in our cars.
  10. I always carry an extra pair of dry socks in a Ziplock bag. Pants and long sleeve shirts of a material that dries quickly. Most people don’t think of it, but clothes are the first priority in terms of shelter.
  11. A wool cap for colder environs. A boonie hat for warmer keeps the sun off, protects the head.
  12. Gloves. Not just for weather but to protect your hands.
  13. A survival knife with sharpener. Personal choice and endless arguments over what is best. You don’t need a Rambo size knife. In fact, you don’t want a Rambo knife.
  14. You can’t count on the GPS on your phone. Have a physical map of the area you will be hiking in. If you haven’t bought one, download the contour map for your area for free, then print it out, or order the map sheets. Carry maps inside a waterproof map case. Tie it off to you with what we called a ‘dummy cord’ in Ranger School.
  15. Compass. Which means you need to learn basic land navigation skills and map reading. When those contour lines come together to form a single line, that means a cliff. Don’t walk off it.
  16. I carry an over-sized waterproof rain jacket in my day pack. It packs very tightly. Also, make sure you have a waterproof cover for your pack (one should come with it).
  17. Sunscreen and bug juice can keep an enjoyable hike from turning into a miserable trek.
  18. I have my wallet on a day hike, but I also carry $20 in cash a Ziplock bag. I also put biowipes in there just in case. Along with 550 cord. Because you always carry 550 cord, also known as parachute line. You trace it to find the edge of your canopy when you do a water jump and the parachute settles down on you in the dark and, wait, TMI.
  19. Poncho. A poncho makes a great shelter. Often it was all I’ve used when camping. On some deployments it was home.
  20. I carry a SpotX 2 Way Satellite messenging system. I’ve gone to many locales where there is no cell phone coverage. There are places all over the country, including in the Smoky Mountains, with no coverage. I view this as a potentially life-saving investment. Also peace of mind as my family can get hold of me any time and I can update them on my progress.

I’m sure you can come up with other stuff, like stormproof matches, zip ties, etcetera, but these are the basics. Better to be safe, than sorry. This pack can help you in emergencies in your car and home also. I always carry it in the Wanderer, my Jeep Gladiator.

The contents of my day pack: Knife with whistle/sharpener; canteen; rain jacket; (Ziplok extra batteries for headlamp, water purifying tablets, waterproof match cases, small roll duct tape, magnesium fire starter, 550 cord); dog leash; solar battery pack, cables, (Ziplok money, medical tape, biowipes, sun screen); Ziplok (gloves and watch cap); Ziplok (extra socks); bug juice; SpotX with case; plasma ligher/flashlight; headlamp; survival bag; fire starter; survival straw; Quikclot bandage; Ultralight Waterproof Medical Kit 9; splint.

The compass and mirror are tied off in the front left pocket of the day pack. I carry several power bars in the outside right mesh pocket. I carry a water bottle in the outside left mesh pocket in addition to the canteen inside. Israeli bandage in First Aid kit. My cell phone is in my thigh pocket of my pants. My Leatherman and flashlight on my belt. I clip my Jeep key off to the ring on my pants (always clip your car key somewhere; do not leave loose in your pocket).

Grab-n-Go Bag– a priority

If you need one piece of preparation gear, get the one that has a lot of pieces.

Frankly, after researching, there’s nothing wrong with buying a pre-packaged kit if you don’t have the time to do an Area Study and then selectively pack one. I bought this for my son in San Diego since it included many of the essentials:

Frankly, after researching, there’s nothing wrong with buying a pre-packaged kit if you don’t have the time to do an Area Study and then selectively pack one. I bought this for my son in San Diego since it included many of the essentials:

EVERLIT Earthquake Emergency Kits Survival Kit 72 Hrs 2 Person Bug Out Bag for Hurricanes, Floods, Tsunami, Other Disasters,Include Food Water, Gear, Hand-Crank Charger and More (a basic bag with supplies for 2 people for 72 hours)

However, there is much more than just the kit. Clothes, perhaps a vest and more can make a big difference.

You must adjust based on your environment and your Area Study. More importantly, how much will fit and you can carry on foot? Factor in what gear you can readily scavenge or make from field expediency.

The gear is broken down by areas below. I explain the item, then a checklist follows. Feel free to personalize, upgrade, whatever. This is a guideline. To get links to all items (which I have), click on the red box on any page on this web site for a word doc with links.

The bag itself. This goes back to how much you can carry. Remember, the bigger the bag, the more obvious it is. And the more someone might want to steal it from you. If you have no experience with backpacks, go to your local sporting good store (REI always has knowledgeable personnel working) and ask.

Do you want just a regular backpack like kids take to school? An internal frame ruck? External frame? Built in hydrating system? The choices are limitless. What you should do is go down this list first, write out what you’d like in the bag, get the stuff, then find a bag that fits the stuff. You might find you’re trying to carry too much. That’s when you take out the items depending on importance. Also, consider the color of the bag. I’d go with, if not camouflage, something that is dark in color, or that matches your surrounding terrain.

WATER

6 full 500ml water bottles or 24 125ml pack of emergency water. This is your immediate emergency supply if you have no time to fill up your . . .

Water Containers. Either a built in water supply such as a Camelbak or pockets/clips for water carriers. Most packs have external loops on which you can secure canteens and water carriers. Remember, though, that water sloshing about and things on the outside of your bag banging about, violates noise discipline. Your first priority is to fill up this container with potable water or fill from your household water stash if bugging out. The water bottles are to sustain you to get to that point. They also then become extra water containers.

Water Purification.

Lifestraw equivalent and two bottles purification tablets.

Water Filter

Waterproof Sacks, inner bags, Ziploc bags. Everything inside your backpack that can get wet needs to be inside a waterproof sack/inner bag. Have a supply of assorted size Ziploc bags for smaller gear.

Empty compressible water containers: For after establishing base camp

FIRE

Windproof lighters. 3 each.

Windproof matches with striker.

Magnesium fire starter. Make sure you practice with it before trying it for the first time in the midst of a downpour and hurricane force winds.

Portable stove and fuel supply. You need a small stove with a fuel supply for at least a week. Go with the stove for cooking initially instead of a fire because of smoke and light discipline.

FOOD

Minimum 6 days supply. Add in power bars, etc. Survival meals.

Pot to cook in, utensils, pot holder.

FIRST AID

Emergency first aid kit.

Medical mask.

Quikclot sponge. 2 each

Universal Splint, rolled. 1 each.

Extra medication (minimum one week’s worth)

Extra glasses

SHELTER

Emergency, light weight sleeping bag. These are also called bivy sacks. They are a step up from the emergency blankets you see advertised and more effective.

Small tent or poncho. This depends on multiple factors: how many people, portability, weather, etc. As you’ll see later, my recommendation for the hide site is to make it in a remote location. If you’re hard-core, you eschew the tent in favor of a field expedient shelter that can be put up and taken down quickly, using a poncho and paracord. This also depends on the weather/Area Study.

Sleeping pad. Either a fixed pad or Thermarest self-inflating. Not just for comfort, but in cold environments, staying off the ground, saves you heat. In a hot, jungle environment, this can be swapped out for a hammock.

Insect repellent adequate for your environment

Sleeping bag*. Your decision on a sleeping bag depends on your Area Study. Plus 20? Minus 20? A bivy sack is useful for both shelter and sleeping. You need something waterproof to insert the sleeping bag into.

TOOLS

Leatherman, Mutli-Tool (in addition, consider adding Leatherman, Crunch Multi-Tool)

Portable, hand crank, emergency radio, rechargeable flashlight.

Battery powered headlamp. Often, in the dark, doing survival activities, you’ll need both hands, so this helps. Also, consider having a red lens cover or red option for the light so you can use it at night and not emit a large signature.

Fixed blade survival knife. We used to argue about knives all the time in our team room. Which type was best, where to carry it, etc. etc. I like a six to eight inch blade. With sharpening stone.

Folding saw. These are very useful in cutting firewood, clearing paths and construction.

Paracord/550 cord. 100 feet at least. Parachute cord or 550 cord as we called it in the army. This is very strong, very light and narrow cord that again, will have more uses than you can imagine.

Signal mirror

Signal panel, such as a VS-17. This is why everything else is muted or camouflaged. You keep this packed away until you actually want to signal someone.

Fishing Line, hooks, sinkers and some lures. These come in handy kits.

Snare wire. Indispensable. You’ll be amazed how many different uses you’ll find for this beyond setting snares. Traps are a much more efficient way to catch game over hunting. Hunting with a gun also leaves a noise signature that might attract unwanted guests.

Electrical tape. 1 roll.

Duct tape. 1 roll.

Candles. Primarily in a winter environment for light, warmth, fire, glazing snow cave, etc.

Survival axe.

Machete. If applicable to your environment and zombie threat level.

Snow shovel. If applicable to your environment

Pocket chainsaw. Light weight, small, but can be very useful in a variety of situations. Such as amputating your own arm if its pinned to a canyon wall by a boulder. Joking. Not.

MISC.

Compass.

Zip ties. An assortment. Very useful.

Map of the area. A physical, geographic map. 1:24,000 scale at least.

Waterproof Map case. Make sure there is a way to tie this off to you.

Pen, pencil and paper.

Identification. Driver’s license, passport.

Weapons. Personal choice.

Optics. A small pair of binoculars or a small telescope could be very valuable. Some say night vision goggles but now you’re crossing the line into the Apocalypse and Zombies. I don’t see NVGs being in your GnG bag unless you live in Nome, Alaska where it’s dark 24 hours a day and vampires can come and have a buffet as they did in 30 Days of Night. Then get a set so you can at least see the vampire that kills you.

Cash. ATMs won’t work if the power is out. Cash will be an initial barter material until it gets real bad when food, first aid, expertise (especially medical) and weapons/ammunition will take priority.

PERSONAL ITEMS

Toilet paper. Baby wipes are preferable.

Toothbrush with paste

Razor and blades

Camping soap

Camping towel (small, dries fast)

Feminine hygiene products as needed

CLOTHING

Pair of workout shoes or broken in boots, in case you have to bug out and don’t have time to put on your proper bug out clothing

Extra socks. At least three pair.

Boot bands. Seems trivial, until things start crawling up your legs.

Wool watch cap. Most heat escapes through the head and/or:

Boonie hat. Protection from the sun, absorbs sweat.

Gloves. For weather as appropriate but also for working. Something that gives you a good grip while also protecting your skin. When I was in the field, I wore thin gloves pretty much all the time. They allowed me to handle my weapon but also protected my hands.

A Post About West Point Graduation On Social Media

There is a post making the rounds that cadets didn’t want to shake Trump’s hand at graduation and that’s why he left early. It doesn’t pass the smell test.

As a West Point graduate I find this post questionable as best. Did the author really talk to these people? When?

Frankly, I don’t buy it. I shook Ronald Reagan’s hand at my graduation even though not a fan. It would have been disrespectful not to. And, honestly the #1 thing on those graduates’ minds? Graduation after four hard years. Not politics.

Trump wanted to go golf. That is why he left. He doesn’t need popular support anymore, particularly his MAGA so he doesn’t care.

This idea of some sort of unified “honor code” uprising is spurious. Nice thought, but the reality is I am sure a large number of cadets, if not a majority, support Trump. I recently had to block a friend and fell graduate after half a century due to his fanatical support of Trump.

Please remember a piece of plebe “poop” we were required to memorize: In 55 of the 60 major battles in the Civil War, West Pointers commanded both sides. I always kept that foremost in my mind; even wrote a series of books (Duty, Honor, Country) about it because I consider it a rather startling fact of history.

We’re not there yet, but those cadets oath to the Constitution, not the president, is going to face some tough tests in the coming years.

I am not at all sure how many will side with the Constitution. I know I will.

Number 24: An Excellent Drama of Resistance and the Price It Exacts

Sometimes movies and tv shows and books are poorly marketed. Number 24 is one of those simply from the image they use; of a soldier firing his weapon. It is a war movie, but not one in the usual sense.

It’s a Norwegian movie about the most decorated member of the Resistance during World War II. It is not, however, your usual thriller full of action. It alternates between the protagonist as an old man talking about his experiences to a group of school children and his experiences during the German occupation.

It is a true story. And as such, shows the good, the bad and the ugly of Resistance. In Special Forces we studied resistance movements through history and the lessons learned, often at the cost of blood and death, are the same over and over. The bravery of the handful of people who stood up to the Nazis is inspiring.

But it also shows the cost of doing so. Of friends on opposite sides. The cost of meting out justice.

It also demonstrates how easily people can become evil. And how hard it is to be heroic in the face of evil.

I found the movie to be understated yet powerful. Let us hope we never have to make the decisions the protagonist, Gunnar Sønsteby, had to make.

Mobland: Real Criminals Mirroring Political Criminals

Guy Ritchie seems to be England’s answer to Taylor Sheridan. His dramas are more cerebral and focused on psychology than the American shows, though.

Mobland is about two crime families going to war. The key to the show is the Helen Mirren character.

Spoiler alert.

She plays the wife of Pierce Brosnan, the head of the Harrigan crime family. Tom Hardy plays their enforcer. I won’t get into the plot; what’s more interesting is the way it portrays how a malignant narcissist, the Helen Mirren character, plays all the people around her. Betrays them all. And in the end, brings her husband down with herself. Quite happily. She will do anything to stay relevant, even get her own child chainsawed to death.

Yes, it’s not pretty.

It’s something we should pay attention to because we currently have a man at the helm of our country who is exactly like her. He’s already proven he betrays everyone who works for hm. And he is going to destroy us as he goes down.

Tom Hardy, as Harry, recognizes what’s happening. His problem? He’s actually loyal. I think this is going to be an issue for our military in the next few years.

Guy  Ritchie does a very good job showing each character being driven by their own pathos. The lack of awareness all around is also eye-opening.

I assume there will be more seasons and look forward to them.

“Spellbinding!” Terry Brooks

The first book of my Atlantis series is free today through the 22nd.

The full blurb is: “Spell-binding! Will keep you on the edge of your seat. Call it techno-thriller, call it science fiction, call it just terrific story-telling.” Terry Brooks

I think this series gets better as it goes on as I use dual timelines and focus on famous battles in the past where one side was wiped out; but in my series their sacrifice was not in vain: Isandlwanda, Little Big Horn, Thermpylae and more. But there is also a present day threat to our world that requires that sacrifice in the past. Amelia Earhart and other historical figures also make an appearance.

Of course, Atlantis is the only deal today. Area 51: Redemption, the first in the new Area 51 books is free while four of the original series are discounted. My newest solo, Shelter from the Storm, is only .99 or Kindle Unlimited. And my standalone, The Rock, is free or kindle unlimited.

Nothing but good times ahead!

Bob

Worst Case Scenario: Slow Societal Collapse Without A Purge

Popular media is full of post-Apocalyptic shows. Walking Dead, The Last of Us, Earth Abides, etc. The same with movies showing Apocalyptic events where a disaster happens and everything collapses and billions are killed right away. The story is always about the small band of survivors.

In both cases there are two constants: It happens fast and there are few survivors.

But the reality is that the far more likely real-world scenario is much, much worse and horrible. And actually occurring now as I write this. What I fear is a slow societal collapse.

Where things slowly crumble. Where there is not one defining event, but a series that we notice but don’t acknowledge. We’re already past a number of negative milestones and people are still claiming ignorance.

I cover this topic near the end of The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide, but wanted to highlight some aspects of it so you can see what’s happening and going to happen.

Here are immediate signs of collapse (days, weeks away):

The emergency or disaster is something that is approaching you and can’t be stopped.

The rule of law has completely broken down and now your home is a target and you cannot adequately defend it

Television stations go blank.

Local FM radio stations go off the air.

The water stops.

The power grid goes down over an extensive area without any sign of repair forthcoming.

Long haul freight trucks are no longer moving. Most urban areas have enough food to last no more than a week.

Increased military presence, especially if its Federal forces, not National Guard. Federal military Army, Air Force and Marines can only be employed stateside in extreme emergencies. In your Area Study learn the difference and what National Guard units are nearby; what their unit patch is (on the left shoulder) and what unit designations would be marked on the bumpers of their military vehicles.

In cities, if garbage is piling up and not being picked up, eventually this will cause disease. It also indicates a slow breakdown of social order. Of the three, police/fire/sanitation the latter is the one that can cause the biggest problems long term.

There is slim to no possibility of receiving aid. This latter is something people don’t consider in mild or moderate emergencies. Localized emergencies always have the advantage of outside assistance coming in. If an emergency is on a national or international scale, this likelihood is drastically reduced.

A disturbing aspect of this is that while the government might call for evacuations, there really is no protocol for announcing that things have completely gone to s$%t. In fact, it is unlikely that such a thing will ever be announced. The desire to avoid panic will often override reality. Thus, you must make this decision on your own.

Make sure you can listen in on the Emergency Broadcast Stations with your survival radio. A smart move is to monitor emergency transmissions in your area. In my free apps I list one that will allow you to do that. Often the emergency services are better informed than the general public. You can also get an idea of the scope of the emergency or disaster not only from what is being said, but the tone of the emergency personnel. A warning sign is if the emergency personnel begin abandoning their jobs.

What Can Cause the Collapse of Civilization?

World War III.

The use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons on a large scale.

A series of local conflicts that disrupt trade and commerce on an international level.

Water shortages. This is one of the most glaring threats to our world. Many places in the world already lack clean water. I predict that wars in the future will not be over oil, but over water.

Climate change. While people debate this, I prefer to deal with the scientific reality that we are damaging our environment and Mother Nature has a way of equalizing things. The easiest way to know its real is to check what the insurance companies are doing.

A large solar flare that bathes the planet in an EMP pulse that destroys electronics.

A pandemic. Another one will happen and sooner, rather than later. And it will be worse than Covid. And given the ignorance among anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers it will be much worse.

A depletion of resources.

A meteor strike of sufficient size.

A volcanic eruption that spreads enough ash to start the equivalent of a nuclear winter.

Economic disruption that spreads. This one is appearing more and more likely.

Remember that great civilizations have collapsed before. Often it wasn’t a single event, but an accumulation of events. The Mayans, Mesopotamia, Persia, Greece, Rome, and on and on. While I am not an alarmist, I think we have a reasonably good chance of seeing a major disruption of our way of life in the next thirty years. As they used to say in the old Army, when they had cigarettes in the C-Rations: Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.

Less than that, there are a number of various possibilities. What most people fail to realize is how fragile civilization is and how easily it can break down, with a domino effect that will be shocking.

In researching this, I found many of those addressing this issue are either naïve or gloss over the depth of what will happen. Many dwell on political issues. I’m just going to focus on the practical issues.

While New York and New Jersey struggled to recover from Hurricane Sandy, a friend emailed that they got their power back, and a crew from Alabama had been working in their neighborhood day and night doing this. While this shows the great spirit of America, it occurs to me that that crew would not be there if Alabama needed them. This is key: a large-scale catastrophe that covers most of a continent will preclude aid from inside that continent.

Pre-Collapse

There are stages to surviving an extreme emergency. While a dramatic event might bring it about, it is more likely you will see many signs indicating the collapse is coming. Most people will ignore these signs. The closest I can liken it to is Germany in the 1930s. Many people saw what was coming; the vast majority chose to ignore it. On a much lower level, as the housing market bubbled and boiled in 2006, my wife and I sold our house, against the advice of pretty much everyone. We crunched the numbers and also accepted that things had to change, and not in a good way.

You will see signs of bad things coming. It won’t happen overnight. Severe power outages that don’t get better are a sign.

The key to pre-collapse is, like everything in my book, to prepare. The base level of survival, Grab & Go bags, etc. will not be sufficient. Some preparations can be integrated into your current life as a way of living, such as growing a garden. But you have to start now.

I’m not going to cover the likelihood of various scenarios, because it’s just as likely a random, unexpected event can cause the collapse of civilization as easily as war, peak oil, global warming, etc etc.

The bottom line is it isn’t going to be pretty. You can expect food shortages, fuel shortages, riots, power outages, martial law, war and the complete breakdown of law and order.

And that’s only the first month.

I cannot overemphasize how quickly the veneer of civilization can be stripped away. Some of the ethnic fighting in various places around the world have shown how apparently civilized people can rapidly fall into barbarism. In 10th Special Forces, many of our soldiers were most dismayed by the fighting they saw in the Balkans because those places seemed so much like their own home (Sarajevo hosted the Olympics not long before the civil war). We tend to think this ‘can’t happen here’ but it can.

Another key to wrap your brain around is that there won’t be any help coming. Once civilization breaks down, there won’t be a reaching out from any remaining pockets. They will be desperate for their own survival. Supermarkets have a three-day supply of food. The world, the entire world, has about a month and a half supply. One of the signs will be panic buying. You don’t want to be caught up in the panic.

On the plus side, you will be amazed how quickly many human beings can adapt to a change in their standard of living. While we will miss our cell phones and lights and supermarkets, we can adapt and evolve.

An extreme emergency requires an extreme mindset. You have to let go of many habits.

So what do you need to do to prepare?

Prioritize your needs based on your area study. The first question is if you can even stay where you are? If you are in a metropolitan area, most likely not. If you live in the suburbs, consider that you will see massive urban flight through your communities. Where can you go? This is taking the concept of the hide site to a whole new level. Since you have now done all your preparations for mild and moderate emergencies it’s time to take it to the next level and prepare for an extreme emergency.

The priorities are the same except on a sustainable, long-term basis: water, food, shelter.

The key word is sustainable. You can stock up a year’s worth of food and have a water source, but that’s not sustainable. Also, a food stock, like any other, is subject to being taken from you.

The other problem is that unlike those media presentations where the survivors live off of scavenging, that won’t be viable when hundreds of millions are going to for the same items.

Here’s a sobering thought: few areas in the United States are locally self-sustaining. Without industrialized food processing, we simply can’t produce enough food to feed our current population level. Think what that means: many people will starve to death. Starving people are desperate people and they will do anything to get food. So your food stock will be like fresh brains to zombies.

Can you live off the land? Do you know how? Do you want to learn how to?

There are things you can stock up on that will be useful. While initially, cash and valuables such as gold coins might have value, when things get desperate enough, other items will become more precious. Weapons and ammunition are two of those. Medical supplies are another. So is food. So is expertise, especially medical.

I’m not going to rehash what’s already been covered in equipment. Look at what has been discussed and then consider it in terms of years of use.

Collapse

Run for the hills boys!

Not necessarily. Evaluate the situation. If you are not in immediate danger, this is a moment when taking your time is important. Gather as much information as possible, understanding that you will hear conflicting accounts. There will be an effort by those in power to suppress panic.

There were those on 9-11 who evacuated the second tower and then went back to their offices when given the all clear. I’ve listened to tapes of some of those people on their cell phones, decrying this decision as they were trapped after the second plane hit. Be very leery of those who declare an emergency over. In many emergency situations there are after-effects, whether it be follow-on earthquakes, more bombs set for first responders in a terrorist attack, or others.

How do you know civilization has collapsed? When the infrastructure (electricity, roads, rail, flight) fails and does not appear to be coming back any time soon. Many people will wait for help. Unfortunately, the help will be in the same situation. It’s a question of considering your hide site your new home, or, if untenable, moving until you find a locale where you can develop a self-sustaining community for your team.

Speed of Collapse

Understand that a collapse can be a gradual thing or it can happen very quickly. There are some keys that collapse is imminent. Steer away from the fear mongers who warn you that society is going to collapse and you should run out and invest in gold or whatever product they’re hawking. Their goal is to make money, which makes little sense if they truly believe society is collapsing. My theory is that it is a possibility, but not a probability.

More signs of the fall:

•    Power outages that cover entire regions and show little sign of being restored.

•    Multiple nuclear explosions.

•    A solar flare that fries the world’s electrical grid.

•    When an endemic (confined to a particular area) becomes a pandemic (spread over all areas). A pandemic also has a higher infection rate and usually a higher kill rate.

•    Remember, a huge problem you will face is that most people, unlike you, are not prepared for emergencies. Panic is inevitable regardless of the emergency, especially if it affects everyone in your area.

I am not a doom and gloomer. I am a realist. Humans are much more adaptable than most realize. But it pays to be aware. And to be prepared. And you need to start preparing NOW.