The Three Steps of Change

The picture is of volunteers standing outside a medical center in Italy. They’re holding bags of food to hand out to those less fortunate.

Italy has been in lockdown over a month now after bungling early warnings of COVID-19. If we want to get an idea where we’re headed, let’s see where they are, even as a lockdown STILL ripples across our country and our Federal response is rife with graft and profiteering and inefficiency.

In Italy, high unemployment is having a strong effect along with inadequate government support with many unemployed, especially seasonal and gig workers falling into the gaps of getting no support. Sound familiar? Right now people here aren’t hungry or desperate but they are getting that way in Italy. Community support groups are helping, but they have a more homogeneous population than we do and don’t have a government that is actively pitting citizens against each other.

Crime is on the rise. People are going hungry and many are relying on handouts to eat. Hungry people are dangerous people.

In many ways, we are going to be worse off than Italy.

A huge misconception right now is that rural areas are safe. People are focused on New York City and the massive tolls there, but the reality is that NYC might actually be at the peak and perhaps crawling through it to the other side. It’s elsewhere that that the water has receded from the shoreline and people are out and about on the exposed beach. Literally, in the case of Georgia which opened its beaches this past weekend.

We have a large media outlet and a president that are downplaying the severity of this virus; many people in rural areas believe them. This is going to kill a lot of people. I’ve predicted mass graves in Florida. New York is already facing this issue. Oddly, I was in the midst of writing a scene in my next novel on Hart Island in New York City when the city announced that many victims would probably end up there. It’s a small island near City Island in the Bronx where over a million people have been buried over the course of more than a century. Potters Field. I foresee mass graves in Florida given the aging, unhealthy population and, frankly, an overall ignorance of the reality of the threat.

People in rural areas are, overall, less healthy. Older. There are many counties without ICU beds. In fact, there are counties without hospitals. Here in TN we face a severe shortage of medical care in rural areas.

We had our first mail carrier die from COVID-19. Warehouse workers are sick and dying. Our supply chain is fraying at the edges and it will get much worse.

Having deployed to countries where civil order broke down, often rapidly, I know it can happen here. The people in the places I went didn’t think it could happen there either. And it did.

In a month we will see a surge in crime. People will be stealing food and supplies. That’s just a reality. We already have a White House black market on PPE and ventilators with Jared Kushner favoring Republican donors and the government selling its stockpile to private companies which then inflate the price and sell it to the states. It’s not going to be different at the local level.

WHAT CAN YOU DO? Try to have a month’s worth of food on hand. Think about rationing what you have to last. Stay at home. Lock your doors. Be very careful of scams and people calling or coming to your door. If you need to go to several stores in the next few days to get those supplies, do so. Some will accuse me of advocating hoarding. No. Because the shelves are relatively full now in most places. You won’t be there in two weeks when people are fighting over what there is. Technically you’re leaving more for them to fight over then.

Long term, get a garden going. We started ours this week. Understand who your “A-Team” is. Who in your neighborhood do you trust? I have an entire section in the Survival Guide on building an A-Team.

Here is a slideshow that talks about FOOD and also expiration dates which need a bit of interpretation.

One misconception is that the virus will “die out” in warmer weather. Actually, the flu and COVID-19 aren’t bothered by warmer weather. The reason these viruses are worse in cold weather has nothing to do with temperature. It has to do with the fact that humans are crowded together indoor during cold weather and thus they spread more easily.

The storm over New York City, New Orleans and other cities will now move outward.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Also now in Kindle Unlimited.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (same as above, minus the preparation part in order to be smaller in print)

The map above is the estimate chances of an epidemic across the country. The darker, the worse.

I sometimes wonder how this event will be studied by historians. I know it will be seen as a turning point in history. Exactly how, isn’t certain yet, but I have a few guesses.

The experiment called the United States is over. It lasted far longer than the Founders ever thought it would. Sadly this happening in our lifetime. It was inevitable given that we incorporated slavery into the Constitution. An Amendment didn’t change the core of that document. We needed a new Constitution. We could have had one except for an assassin’s bullet in 1865. I often think we underestimated how much Lincoln’s death hurt this country. He was the one man who could have helped us truly let go of slavery and move forward. Instead we compromised.

Anyway. I took the dogs out today and was shocked how many people are out and about and walking past each other and biking past each other and running past each other as if it’s a holiday. The southern states are going to be slammed in the coming weeks because a number of governors took their cues from Washington which has been clueless.

We were introduced to “alternate facts” three years ago and now we are living in an alternate reality. Except it’s a deadly one. We have now passed 10,000 deaths. Over triple 9-11 where we reacted with such violence we destroyed the world order. Now we’re so numbed by lies, one wonders if we even have a Federal government. Our Department of Defense has not defended us. Instead, it’s turning on itself as political appointees dismantle it.

I’m tired. My eye hurts. I’ve got a headache. I take heart in the unbelievable sacrifices being made by doctors and nurses and garbagemen and those who stack the shelves and truck drivers and all those putting themselves at risk. Then I’m appalled and angered at the profiteering and ignorance displayed by others.

We will get through this. What awaits on the other end will require a rekindling of spirit.

We must remember reality. We must remember facts. And we must remember those who betrayed us.

The first thing I have people do in my Survival Guide, and when I conduct Survival Workshops, is an Area Study. Why? Because everyone’s situation is different, thus generic solutions don’t necessarily apply to all. A handful, such as pandemics do. My wife’s mother just asked her on the phone how come we have masks—my wife told her I’ve got all sorts of stuff ‘downstairs’. She has no clue the half of it. But I’d done a blog post on the Inevitable Pandemic around the time I published the first version of my survival guide about eight years ago.

Anywho. An Area Study is examining your environment with the perspective of evaluating assets and threats so you can properly prepare. An Area Study will allow you to tighten down your preparation and focus on things in order of priority. It’s not just the environment but also includes yourself and your team.

In Special Forces, prior to deploying to an Area of Operations, we conducted an Area Study of that location. You must conduct an Area Study of your Area of Operations (AO). This means studying your home, your work, school, and any other locales where you and people on your A-Team spend a significant amount of time. When taking a trip, you should conduct a travel area study, examining the route you will take, your destination, and your route back.

There are so many cases where a thoughtful Area Study followed up by the appropriate preparations would have saved lives. Preparation is so much better than reacting. Which is what we’re doing now.

Think about it. You live in a tsunami zone. Have you actually driven your evacuation route? How long does it take? Have you figured out the quickest escape route on foot, when an accident caused by terrified people blocks the road or everyone in your neighborhood flees at the same time on the same route creating a traffic jam? You work on the 40th floor of a skyscraper. Do you ever look around and ask yourself: how do I get out of here if the normal means of egress are blocked? While schools run active shooter drills, what about the work place?

Some of the core questions to start with: How close are you to the nearest military base? Nearest police station? Firehouse? Hospital? Do you know where the closest emergency room is? How long will it take to get there? How quickly can an ambulance respond to your location? When my wife and I lived on a winding road that was difficult and confusing to travel, during one medical emergency my wife had to be driven to the nearest largest road to meet an ambulance as it came toward us, saving considerable time and perhaps her life.

You want to examine your environment for a lot of things. What can harm you? What can help you? What can
hide you? What are your enabling factors? What are your disabling factors? What is the terrain and how can it help you or hamper you in movement? What are the roads, trails, rail, etc. What effect does your environment have on you? What effect will you have on it?

In essence, an Area Study requires you to invest some time and energy on research and to look at your surroundings from a different perspective. It can actually be a fun experience and allow you to see the world around you with a different perspective. Get your household involved because we all look at things a little bit differently.

When my A-Team traveled, the engineers would be looking at things with a unique perspective. When they saw a bridge, they were mentally calculating how to blow it up. When they saw a stream, they were thinking how to provide a water supply to villagers and irrigation for fields. My weapons men would look at terrain for fields of fire for direct and indirect fire weapons. And cover and concealment for us. As a survivor, you have to look at your environment in terms of what you can use and what can be a threat, what can be scavenged and much more, which requires you to assume a different mindset for a while.

We live in a variety of natural environments. There are also a wide range of human developments from urban to remote rural. Thus one size doesn’t fit all. Doing an Area Study is critical so you can tailor your preparation for your specific situation. Some threats are going to be of much more importance for you to prepare for than others. For instance, if you live in Oklahoma, the threat of hurricane is nonexistent (so far), but tornados and earthquakes are likely.

Unfortunately, we ALL needed to prepare for a pandemic. But its better late than never. Also, consider the issue if you have another natural disaster that is prone in your area, such as tornado or earthquake (my son just experienced a mild on in San Diego the other day) on top of the COVID-19.

A free slideshow on Area Study and other survival topics are on this page.

PLEASE! Take this virus seriously. Stay safe.

 The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Also now in Kindle Unlimited.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (same as above, minus the preparation part in order to be smaller in print)

Got your attention? Sadly, if you’re reading this, I’ve probably had your attention.

I despair of the stupidity and willful ignorance in this country. We will have the worst death percentage among First World Countries because of the pathetic and uncoordinated response. It didn’t need to happen, but the ship has sailed. It’s too late. We dismantled so many programs that could have helped or even prevented this over the course of the past three years, no matter what propaganda and spin you’re hearing.

If you live in those states or have relatives there, especially older ones, please try to get them to understand the gravity of the situation. I live in Knoxville, TN and am watching with dismay as people go about life with just minor inconveniences.

I just put together a couple of our garden boxes. Also sorted our emergency supplies. Not just to know what we have, but in large plastic bins if it should reach the point of bug out. We’re quite a ways from that; or we should have done it already. We didn’t because we can shelter in place indefinitely. We would actually be more at threat if we left. I’ll post a blog in a week or so about when its time to “bug out” but no place is there, not even NYC. Actually, if people in NYC bug out now, and I’m sure some are, they are bringing the virus with them. So don’t.

Actually, it’s pretty much everywhere. We just don’t know because so few people have still been tested. Remember when the VP said we’d have a million tests by the end of the week? How many weeks ago was that?

As far as the surgigal mask goes, here’s a tidbit. There’s an upside. The one with the wire, which you bend around your nose. I’ve seen people wearing them upside down.

Sort of like “Front toward enemy” on a Claymore. Here’s the official spiel:

How to put on a face mask

1. Clean your hands with soap and water or hand sanitizer before touching the mask.
2. Remove a mask from the box and make sure there are no obvious tears or holes in either side of the mask.
3. Determine which side of the mask is the top. The side of the mask that has a stiff bendable edge is the top and is meant to mold to the shape of your nose.
4. Determine which side of the mask is the front. The colored side of the mask is usually the front and should face away from you, while the white side touches your face.
5. Follow the instructions below for the type of mask you are using.
   • Face Mask with Ear loops: Hold the mask by the ear loops. Place a loop around each ear.
   • Face Mask with Ties: Bring the mask to your nose level and place the ties over the crown of your head and secure with a bow.
   • Face Mask with Bands: Hold the mask in your hand with the nosepiece or top of the mask at fingertips, allowing the headbands to hang freely below hands.  Bring the mask to your nose level and pull the top strap over your head so that it rests over the crown of your head.  Pull the bottom strap over your head so that it rests at the nape of your neck.
6. Mold or pinch the stiff edge to the shape of your nose.
7. If using a face mask with ties: Then take the bottom ties, one in each hand, and secure with a bow at the nape of your neck.
8. Pull the bottom of the mask over your mouth and chin.

How to remove a face mask

1. Clean your hands with soap and water or hand sanitizer before touching the mask.Avoid touching the front of the mask. The front of the mask is contaminated. Only touch the ear loops/ties/band.Follow the instructions below for the type of mask you are using.
2. Face Mask with Ear loops: Hold both of the ear loops and gently lift and remove the mask.
3. Face Mask with Ties: Untie the bottom bow first then untie the top bow and pull the mask away from you as the ties are loosened.
4. Face Mask with Bands: Lift the bottom strap over your head first then pull the top strap over your head.

My son reported San Diego had a minor earthquake. Here’s a thing to consider in the midst of this. What other problems could crop up? I joked about a plague of locusts and someone pointed out Africa is experiencing that. Next? A river turning red? I’m sure it’s happening somewhere. I’ll post on doing an Area Study either tomorrow or the next day.

PLEASE! Take this virus seriously. Stay safe.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Also now in Kindle Unlimited.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (same as above, minus the preparation part in order to be smaller in print)

The NY Times has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19, Coronavirus. Click HERE to go to it. Also, The Economist has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19 and it does a very good job drilling down on various aspects.

Long day of trying to rest my eye after the surgery—supposed to spend most of the day on my left side as well as all night and getting business stuff done with a new release coming out later this month.

Just watched a show my wife found on Amazon Prime from Discovery Channel titled Invisible Killers. It was made in 2018 and it pretty much discusses the inevitable influenza pandemic we are now living through. The now famous Dr. Fauci is in it.

I highly recommend watching it to get an understanding of the big picture of what influenza is and why it’s such a problem.

It’s a statement of the human condition that we will spend over 700 billion on defense in a year and leave ourselves defenseless against the inevitable pandemic. And now, we are seeing that great DOD falling apart in the face of this. The fact a Navy Captain went public with concerns for his crew means his chain of command failed him. No one could make a decision. I respect what he did because he threw his career away over concern for his sailors. They may publicly say at the Pentagon that there will be no repercussions, but he knew by doing what he did it was over. But he had a point—he had a combat ineffective multi-billion dollar war machine. When we need 50 cent masks. That are now being bid on by competing states.

It’s late. The dogs are snoring. My eye hurts and I’ve got nothing left today. Tomorrow will be another day. Hang tough. Be nicer to each other. We ARE all in this together.

I just realized its three weeks since I started this blog. And here in Knoxville, we’re still waiting for the tsunami that’s already rolled over New York and New Orleans. Sadly, everyone here in town is so thankful the UT students never came back from Spring Break; that UT pulled the plug while they were gone. That bought us some time.

PLEASE! Take this virus seriously. Stay safe.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Also now in Kindle Unlimited.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (same as above, minus the preparation part in order to be smaller in print)

The NY Times has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19, Coronavirus. Click HERE to go to it. Also, The Economist has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19 and it does a very good job drilling down on various aspects.